Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Hasta la vista American Eagle

At the beginning of the year I believed that American Eagle (AEOS) shares provided a significant margin of safety when they were trading in the $21 to $24 range with a P/E of around 12. With a fantastic ROIC and further confirmation of my evaluation by Greenblatt's "Magic Formula Investing" screener, I was convinced that AEOS was a "booyah" (as Mr. Cramer might suggest)

At $45 and change now, AEOS stock is hotter than their risque advertisements. I am not sure that the Martin + OSA concept will fly.

Insiders certainly seem to be warming up for Christmas by selling the stock at a rich 21 times earnings. At these valuations, this stock has little room for error. A decrease in same-store sales, decrease in inventory turns, etc. can give this stock a nice shave that some of their stubbled models might deserve.

I think it is time to take some money off the table w.r.t AEOS.

Happy Shorting!

Disclosure: I own puts on American Eagle

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi,

I agree on you AEOS was a greet buy, during many time frames over the years. I personally think one should be very careful with shorting. Especially shorting the finest of the finest companies,

Success in investing,
Hendrik Oude Nijhuis
www.magicformulastocks.com

Anonymous said...

Hi !.
might , probably curious to know how one can collect a huge starting capital .
There is no initial capital needed You may begin to receive yields with as small sum of money as 20-100 dollars.

AimTrust is what you thought of all the time
The company represents an offshore structure with advanced asset management technologies in production and delivery of pipes for oil and gas.

It is based in Panama with offices around the world.
Do you want to become a happy investor?
That`s your chance That`s what you wish in the long run!

I feel good, I started to take up real money with the help of this company,
and I invite you to do the same. It`s all about how to select a proper companion who uses your money in a right way - that`s it!.
I take now up to 2G every day, and what I started with was a funny sum of 500 bucks!
It`s easy to start , just click this link http://mebigegyb.o-f.com/iqijes.html
and lucky you`re! Let`s take this option together to become rich

Anonymous said...

Hi !.
You re, I guess , perhaps curious to know how one can make real money .
There is no need to invest much at first. You may start to get income with as small sum of money as 20-100 dollars.

AimTrust is what you thought of all the time
The company represents an offshore structure with advanced asset management technologies in production and delivery of pipes for oil and gas.

It is based in Panama with offices everywhere: In USA, Canada, Cyprus.
Do you want to become an affluent person?
That`s your choice That`s what you wish in the long run!

I feel good, I started to take up income with the help of this company,
and I invite you to do the same. It`s all about how to select a correct companion utilizes your savings in a right way - that`s AimTrust!.
I make 2G daily, and what I started with was a funny sum of 500 bucks!
It`s easy to start , just click this link http://lagulosuqu.the-best-free-web-hosting.com/bufemuv.html
and lucky you`re! Let`s take this option together to get rid of nastiness of the life

Anonymous said...

Good day, sun shines!
There have were times of troubles when I felt unhappy missing knowledge about opportunities of getting high yields on investments. I was a dump and downright pessimistic person.
I have never imagined that there weren't any need in large starting capital.
Now, I feel good, I started to get real income.
It's all about how to choose a proper companion who utilizes your funds in a right way - that is incorporate it in real business, parts and divides the income with me.

You may get interested, if there are such firms? I'm obliged to tell the truth, YES, there are. Please get to know about one of them:
http://theinvestblog.com [url=http://theinvestblog.com]Online Investment Blog[/url]

Anonymous said...

Hi!
You may probably be very interested to know how one can make real money on investments.
There is no need to invest much at first.
You may commense earning with a money that usually goes
for daily food, that's 20-100 dollars.
I have been participating in one company's work for several years,
and I'll be glad to let you know my secrets at my blog.

Please visit blog and send me private message to get the info.

P.S. I earn 1000-2000 per daily now.

http://theinvestblog.com [url=http://theinvestblog.com]Online Investment Blog[/url]